Brower and the Race to Replace

“News that U.S. Attorney Greg Brower is leaving after all – if not now, sometime in the next few months – will surely lead to speculation that he may consider a race against U.S. Sen. Harry Reid,” reported political pundit Jon Ralston in his “Flash” e-newsletter on March 5. “I think Brower, a former assemblyman who understands politics, could be a formidable contender against Reid. But he has to want to do it, and he would have to make that intention known soon.”

The thinking at the time was that Reid tapped Brower for that U.S. Attorney job specifically to take him out of play as a potential challenger in 2010. But Brower is smart enough to recognize that his job was only secure until after the filing deadline next year, and that Reid would terminate him with extreme political prejudice immediately thereafter. Ah, the best laid plans.

That said, Brower would still have his work cut out for him should he entertain jumping into this race. Highly regarded by the GOP establishment, he’s also known as a moderate “Raggio Republican,” which might not sit well with the GOP’s grassroots once this tax-hiking session of the Legislature is finally behind us.

In addition, many question Brower’s political work ethic. They cite his decidedly lackluster campaign for re-election to the state Assembly in 2002 when an underfunded conservative, Sharron Angle, pulled a surprising upset. There’s simply no chance of knocking off Reid by phoning it in.

Still, with the only announced GOP candidate, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, currently under indictment, the field is wide open for Brower should he decide to stick his toes in the water.

And with that, let’s take an updated look at the field of potential GOP candidates and the odds of them getting into the race and snatching the Republican nomination for the right to square off against the Senate Majority Leader next year…

Brian Krolicki (2-1): His defense is assuring folks he’ll be cleared of the politically-motivated trumped-up charges against him by the state’s Democrat attorney general. The question is when the case will be settled. The AG has every political reason to drag it out. And even if settled tomorrow, the D’s will make “Indicted” the lieutenant governor’s middle name from this point forward.

Greg Brower (3-1): Putting feelers out. Politically ambitious. Strong northern Nevada base. But does he have the fire in the belly?

Sue Lowden (4-1): Ready, willing and able to back any credible Republican challenger Problem is no such credible challenger has come forwarded yet. State GOP chief might be the best hope of giving Reid enough of a run for his money to stave off another top-to-bottom electoral disaster for Republicans in 2010.

Randolph Townsend (5-1): Term-limits force state senator to look for a new arena to play in. Experienced and well-connected to the lobbying community in both north and south. But liberal voting record over many years in the Legislature could be problematic in a contested GOP primary against a conservative alternative.

Bill Manders (8-1): Conservative Reno radio talk-show host has a following, but would lose his most powerful bullhorn the minute he officially became a candidate. Also would need to devote time and money becoming as well known in the populated south as he is in the north. But in head-to-head policy debates with Reid, he’d drive the incumbent nuts.

Sharon Angle (10-1): The social conservative leader has been extremely active in organizing and training grassroots activists since her narrow defeat against Senate Minority Leader Bill Raggio last summer. Is she building this army for a statewide race, or laying the groundwork to replace Rep. Dean Heller should he decide to run for something else in 2010?

Bruce James (15-1): Government experience; private industry success. Certainly not afraid of a fight. Doing yeoman’s work on the Spending and Government Efficiency (SAGE) Commission. But can he persuade family to undergo the brutally negative campaign he’d inevitably face?

Dean Heller (25-1): GOP nomination is there for the asking, but conservative congressman is said to have his eyes on the governor’s prize if Gibbons elects not to run for re-election. And maybe even if he does.

Joe Heck (35-1): Word on the street is that the former state senator has all but decided on a gubernatorial run, but that could change if Heller opts to seek the same seat.

John Chachas (50-1): Definite interest, but no name ID and no actual residence in the state. Ownership of some land in Ely doesn’t qualify, even in this immigrant state.

Jon Porter (1,000-1): Did what so many former members of Congress do…cashed out and became a high-priced lobbyist. Which pretty much takes him out of the running.