Nevada Derby Update

With the dog days of summer upon us, time to take a look at the Anybody Butt Reid vs. Harry Reid horse race and see what the field looks like. Remember, these odds are based on the likelihood of these individuals both getting into the race AND nabbing the GOP nomination next June.

Sharon Angle (2-1): The former state legislator’s conservative bona fides, campaign experience and grassroots organizational ability make her a strong contender in any GOP primary. But having only raised $35,000 thus far raises questions about her ability to make it over the finish line.

Republican Party Chairman Sue Lowden (4-1): Like Rachel Alexandra (winner of this year’s Preakness), this filly has the full package. Longtime Nevadan, legislative experience, political experience, gaming experience, banking experience – and drinks her beer right from the bottle. Well-known and respected for her charitable work with the Muscular Dystrophy Association. Smart, good-looking, articulate, personable. In other words, everything Harry Reid ain’t. Plus, she could personally seed a campaign with at least six figures from the gate, if not seven – and she’d easily attract millions from out-of-state donors, large and small. But can she be persuaded to give up a rather comfortable life and throw her bonnet into this hell-hole of a race against The Undertaker?

State Sen. Mark Amodei (7-1): The personable state senator is reportedly waiting for Rep. Dean Heller to make up his mind about running against Reid before making up his own mind about running against Reid. If Heller declines to run, Amodei is rumored to be ready to jump in. But his lack of conservative legislative bona fides (he proposed a billion dollar-plus tax hike in 2003 which cost revered conservative state Sen. Ann O’Connell her seat after she agreed to co-sponsor it as a courtesy to her colleague), a suspect work ethic on the campaign trail, and lack of experience in tough races has many wondering if he could defeat either Angle or Lowden in a GOP primary, let alone Reid in the general.

Rep. Dean Heller (25-1): Was seriously looking at making this race in the spring, but those considerations likely went up in smoke with Sen. John Ensign’s press conference announcing he cheated on his wife with the wife of his best friend who also worked for him and for whom his mom and dad coughed up $96,000 worth of parting “gifts.” It’d be one thing to give up a safe congressional seat with Ensign being at least tacitly supportive; it’s another thing to take that risk with Ensign as an albatross around your neck. The smart money says Heller stays right where he is.

Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (50-1): Even if the Nevada Supreme Court rules later this month that Attorney General Catherine Cortez-Masto is conflicted and can’t prosecute the lieutenant governor over trumped-up charges that he misused U-Promise scholarship funds, an independent pit-bull special prosecutor has already been lined up and is highly unlikely to resolve this case in time for Krolicki to be a viable Reid challenger even if he’s cleared.

John Chachas (100-1): While his family might be from Ely, no indication that the Wall Street banker has made the move from New York to Nevada yet. But at least he’s indicated a desire to help rebuild the Nevada Republican Party – which is already more than Sen. John Ensign and Gov. Jim Gibbons have done.

Chuck Kozak (500-1): This complete unknown’s Nevada GOP debut went over like a lead balloon. A recent transplant to the Reno area, Kozak devoted most of his campaign stump speech at the Nevada Republican Central Committee meeting on July 13th in Las Vegas rattling off the names of all the paid consultants he’s hired for his campaign – none of whom were from Nevada. Not exactly a Dale Carnegie way to endear yourself to the locals.